2026: The Race for 391 West Paces Ferry

ATLANTA — Early polling in the 2026 Georgia governor’s race shows unsettled contests in both parties, with large shares of undecided voters and clear signs of momentum for some candidates while others struggle to gain any traction. For conservatives in the Atlanta metro, the numbers highlight not only who is ahead but which candidates are sinking before the race has even begun in earnest.

On the Republican side, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones continues to post the strongest early numbers. An Atlanta Journal Constitution and University of Georgia survey places Jones at 22 percent among likely GOP primary voters, leading Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger at 15 percent and Attorney General Chris Carr at 7 percent. Roughly 55 percent of Republicans remain undecided, showing how unformed the race still is. A separate Quantus Insights poll shows Jones performing even better at 32 percent, again more than doubling Raffensperger’s support. With Governor Brian Kemp unable to seek a third term, Republicans face a wide open primary that will determine the direction of the party for years to come.

The Democratic primary numbers tell a different story but with just as much volatility. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms remains the clear frontrunner with roughly 40 percent support in the AJC UGA poll. Former DeKalb County CEO and former Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond sits at 11 percent. Like Republicans, Democrats also have a major undecided bloc, with about 40 percent of voters not yet committed to a candidate. Multiple firms, including Quantus and Frederick Polls, consistently place Bottoms between 38 and 43 percent, affirming that she is the dominant figure in the field despite her controversial leadership of Atlanta in 2020, when several nights of violent unrest and property destruction unfolded under her watch. Many conservatives expected those events to damage her long-term political viability, but Democratic voters appear willing to overlook that period and rally around her.

Another candidate who has entered the race but is failing to gain meaningful support is former Republican Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan, who is now running in the Democratic primary after breaking with his former party. His early numbers are exceptionally weak, remaining stuck in the low single digits across multiple surveys. For Democrats, Duncan’s bid has not caught on, in part because many view him as politically homeless and lacking a natural base. For Republicans, his poor performance reinforces the belief that he alienated conservative voters and gained no durable support from the left. His numbers suggest he is unlikely to play a significant role in shaping the course of the primary.

The unsettled polling across both primaries has significant implications for the general election. Georgia remains deeply competitive, particularly in the Atlanta metropolitan area where shifting demographics, population growth, and changing suburban attitudes continue to reshape the political map. Republicans cannot afford further erosion in Cobb, Gwinnett, and northern Fulton counties, where suburban moderation often clashes with rural conservative turnout. Democrats, for their part, must find ways to expand beyond their reliable base in Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton if they hope to win statewide.

Turnout differences between the urban core, inner suburbs, and outer exurbs often decide Georgia’s statewide races. Republicans need strong participation in exurban counties like Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, and Barrow, while Democrats rely on maximizing turnout in metro Atlanta and adding incremental gains in moderate suburbs. Early voting, absentee patterns, candidate messaging, and ground operations will play major roles in determining who can build the broadest coalition.

Candidate quality also remains a major factor. A nominee who is too polarizing or too narrowly aligned with one faction risks struggling in November. Republicans must balance energizing the conservative base with repairing relationships in the suburbs. Democrats must decide whether Bottoms can translate metro popularity into statewide appeal, especially in rural regions skeptical of Atlanta’s political leadership.

As the 2026 election draws nearer, early polling offers only a preliminary snapshot, but it underscores how competitive and consequential this race will be. For conservatives in metro Atlanta, the central challenge is ensuring that the GOP nominates a candidate who can unite rural Republicans while winning back suburban moderates. Democrats appear ready to rally around a familiar figure in Bottoms, even as questions linger about her stewardship of Atlanta during the violent unrest of 2020.

The primaries remain months away, and much can change, but Georgia is once again positioned to be one of the nation’s most important battlegrounds. The coming year will determine who can build the strongest statewide coalition and who will struggle to keep pace in a state where political control increasingly hinges on the shifting dynamics of the Atlanta metro.